P.A.V.O.R.A.-T: A Protocol for the Systematic Assessment of Orbital Phenomena and Anomalies in Unbound Trajectories. A stepped Bayesian framework for the detection and characterization of infrastructure technosignatures in interstellar objects.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62059/LatArXiv.preprints.557Keywords:
Interstellar objects, Technosignatures, Bayesian inference, Vera Rubin, Scientific protocol, 3I/ATLASAbstract
The imminent detection of numerous interstellar objects (IOs) by the Vera Rubin Observatory requires a formal framework to prioritize observational resources and systematically evaluate potential infrastructure technosignatures. We present P.A.V.O.R.A.-T, a stepped Bayesian protocol for Prevision, Alert, Vigilance, Observation, Review of Anomalies, and Tactical Action. The core of the protocol is a Rarity Index (RI) formalized as the posterior probability of artificiality, calculated using likelihood ratios that compare natural and artificial models for multiple observables. We validate the framework through simulations of synthetic populations (AUC = 0.94) and retroactive application to 3I/ATLAS (P(artificial) < 0.01). We specify VOEvent standards for alerts and operational thresholds calibrated for <1% annual false alarms. The reference code is available under MIT license.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Marcelo Gallardo Nicolalde (Autor/a)
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