An imperfect detection model for quickly and participatively determining the population status of Atelopus varius in the Bribri Indigenous Territory, Costa Rica.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62059/LatArXiv.preprints.539Keywords:
Distance sampling, Monitoring, Threatened speciesAbstract
A population of the critically endangered frog Atelopus varius is reported for the first time, and its population structure and density are assessed in a participatory manner in the Örkö Bata Nature Reserve. Members of the community in the locality of Salitre were trained to survey and record individuals of A. varius. A 350 m stretch along a stream was surveyed, which was divided into seven 50 m transects. Population density and structure were estimated using the distance sampling method and the Multinomial-Poisson Mixture model. A total of 64 individuals were recorded, with density explained by age. The highest density was for adults with 399.85 individuals/ha, followed by juveniles with 225.21 individuals/ha and finally metamorphs and subadults with 48.32 and 46.08 individuals/ha, respectively. We demonstrated the viability of using imperfect detection models for rapid and participatory assessments of the density and population structure of species with urgent conservation needs, such as A. varius. We suggest monitoring the population at several periods throughout the year and increasing the sample size to reduce uncertainty in the estimates of some age categories (subadults and metamorphs). We also recommend continuing with a participatory approach in order to maintain long-term population monitoring by local people.
References
Anderson, D. R. (2001). The need to get the basics right in wildlife field studies. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 1294-1297.
Barrio-Amorós, C., Chaves, G., & Puschendorf, R. (2021). Current status and natural history of the critically endangered variable harlequin toad (Atelopus varius) in Costa Rica. Reptiles & Amphibians, 28(3): 374.
Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (Eds.). (2002). Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. New York, NY: Springer New York.
Gómez Hoyos, D. A. (2025). Datos y código análisis: Un modelo de detección imperfecta para conocer de forma rápida y participativa el estado poblacional de Atelopus varius en el territorio indígena Bribri, Costa Rica. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16924105
Gómez-Hoyos, D. A., Bolívar-G, W., Burbano-Yandi, C. E., & García, J. L. (2014). Evaluación poblacional y estrategia de monitoreo para Atelopus spurrelli en el Parque Nacional Natural Utría, Colombia. Revista de Biodiversidad Neotropical 4:104-112.
Gómez-Hoyos, D. A., Méndez, J., González, E., Jiménez-Corrales, K. , Fallas, R., Méndez, A., Méndez, R., Camacho-Durán, M. J., Jiménez, R., Seisdedos-de-Vergara, R., Sandi-Amador, H., Rojas, J., Porras, J., Schipper, J., & González-Maya, J. F. (2022). Investigación participativa y conservación de especies amenazadas en dos áreas silvestres protegidas de la cuenca del río Cotón, Costa Rica. UNED Research Journal, 14(S1): e3879.
Gómez–Hoyos, D. A., Seisdedos–de–Vergara, R., Schipper, J., Allard, R., & González–Maya, J. F. (2020). Potential effect of habitat disturbance on reproduction of the critically endangered harlequin frog Atelopus varius in Las Tablas, Costa Rica. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 43(1): 1-7.
Gómez-Hoyos, D. A., Suarez-Joaqui, T., Bolívar, W., & García, J. L. (2017). Population assessment strategy for Atelopus elegans (Bufonidae) in the Gorgona National Natural Park, Colombia. North-Western Journal of Zoology 13:154-158.
González-Maya, J. F., Gómez-Hoyos, D. A., Cruz-Lizano, I., & Schipper, J. (2018). From hope to alert: demography of a remnant population of the Critically Endangered Atelopus varius from Costa Rica. Studies on Neotropical Fauna and Environment, 53(3): 194-200.
IUCN. 2025. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2025-1. https://www.iucnredlist.org. Accessed on [21 agosto 2025].
Jaynes, K. E., Páez-Vacas, M. I., Salazar-Valenzuela, D., Guayasamin, J. M., Terán-Valdez, A., Siavichay, F. R., Fitzpatrick, S. W., & Coloma, L. A. (2022). Harlequin frog rediscoveries provide insights into species persistence in the face of drastic amphibian declines. Biological Conservation, 276: 109784.
Kellner, K. F., Smith, A. D., Royle, J. A., Kéry, M., Belant, J. L., & Chandler, R. B. (2023). The unmarked R package: Twelve years of advances in occurrence and abundance modelling in ecology. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14(6): 1408-1415. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14123
Kéry, M., & Schmidt, B. (2008). Imperfect detection and its consequences for monitoring for conservation. Community Ecology, 9(2): 207-216.
Lampo, M., Celsa, S. J., Rodríguez‐Contreras, A., Rojas‐Runjaic, F., & García, C. Z. (2012). High turnover rates in remnant populations of the harlequin frog Atelopus cruciger (Bufonidae): low risk of extinction?. Biotropica, 44(3): 420-426.
Lötters, S., Plewnia, A., Catenazzi, A., Neam, K., Acosta-Galvis, A. R., Alarcon Vela, Y., ... & La Marca, E. (2023). Ongoing harlequin toad declines suggest the amphibian extinction crisis is still an emergency. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1): 412.
Mazerolle, M. J. (2023). _AICcmodavg: Model selection and multimodel inference based on (Q)AIC(c)_. R package version 2.3.3, <https://cran.r-project.org/package=AICcmodavg>.
McCaffery, R., Richards-Zawacki, C. L., & Lips, K. R. (2015). The demography of Atelopus decline: Harlequin frog survival and abundance in central Panama prior to and during a disease outbreak. Global Ecology and Conservation, 4: 232-242.
Melo-Beltrán, A. M., Moya-Córdoba, L. de J., Vergara-Rosario, F. E., & Gómez-Hoyos, D. A. (2020). El sapo arlequín del Chocó (Atelopus spurrelli Boulenger, 1914) en el Parque Nacional Natural Utría, Colombia: densidad poblacional y recomendaciones para su monitoreo y conservación. Revista Latinoamericana de Herpetología, 3(2): 34–42. https://doi.org/10.22201/fc.25942158e.2020.2.153
Perez, R., Richards-Zawacki, C. L., Krohn, A. R., Robak, M., Griffith, E. J., Ross, H., Gratwicke, B., Ibáñez, R., & Voyles, J. (2014). Field surveys in Western Panama indicate populations of Atelopus varius frogs are persisting in regions where Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is now enzootic. Amphibian & Reptile Conservation, 8(2): 30-35.
QGIS.org, 2025. QGIS Geographic Information System. QGIS Association. http://www.qgis.org
R Core Team (2024). _R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing_. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. <https://www.R-project.org/>.
Royle, J. A., Dawson, D. K., & Bates, S. (2004). Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling. Ecology, 85(6), 1591-1597.
Ryan, M., Berlin, E., & Gagliardo, R. (2005). Further exploration in search of Atelopus varius in Costa Rica. FrogLog 69: 1-2.
Savage, J. M. 1972. The Harlequin Frogs, Genus Atelopus, of Costa Rica and Western Panama. Herpetologica, 28(2): 77-94
Seisdedos de Vergara, R. (2017). Evaluación del estado poblacional del sapo arlequín (Atelopus varius) y la prevalencia del hongo quitridio (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) en una población de la zona protectora Las Tablas, Costa Rica. Tesis para optar al título de Magister Scientiae. Instituto de Conservación y Manejo de Vida Silvestre, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica.
Seisdedos-de-Vergara, R., Gómez-Hoyos, D. A., Alvarado, G., Abarca, J. G., Estrella, J., Schipper, J., & González-Maya, J. F. (2022). Prevalencia del hongo quitridio en la “especie abanderada” Atelopus varius (Anura, Bufonidae), Zona Protectora las Tablas, Costa Rica. UNED Research Journal/Cuadernos de Investigación UNED, 14(S1): e3880.
Tarvin, R. D., Peña, P., & Ron, S. R. (2014). Changes in population size and survival in Atelopus spumarius (Anura: Bufonidae) are not correlated with chytrid prevalence. Journal of Herpetology, 48(3): 291-297.
Valencia, L. M., & Fonte, L. F. M. (2021). Plan de Acción para la Conservación de la Rana Arlequín (Atelopus) (2021-2041). Iniciativa de Supervivencia Atelopus, 52 pp.
Wickham, R. (2016). ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis. Springer-Verlag New York.
Downloads
Downloads
Posted
Data Availability Statement
The data and data analysis have been made available on the Zenodo.org platform.
Gómez Hoyos, D. A. (2025). Datos y código análisis: Un modelo de detección imperfecta para conocer de forma rápida y participativa el estado poblacional de Atelopus varius en el territorio indígena Bribri, Costa Rica. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16924105
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Diego A. Gómez-Hoyos, Rocío Seisdedos-de-Vergara (Autor/a)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This preprint contains the reported license and associated copyright. Once published in an associated journal or other publisher, the published version assumes the publisher's terms and conditions.